Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO062022 221210 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.90     80.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     20.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     16.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     94.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.1  19.9  21.9  23.6  28.9  26.6  26.4  30.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  66.0  64.0  62.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         49.2  41.4  38.4  40.2  58.7 114.4 135.0 135.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    46.0   6.0  21.0   7.0  17.0 -20.0   9.0  14.0  N  U  U  U  U VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  80.0  79.0  77.0  68.0  65.0  58.0  53.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   3.0   2.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0  -1.0  -4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 22.14

 IO062022 221210 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.90     80.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.