Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH012022 211122 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -13.70    108.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     36.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     21.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     89.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.7  19.5  19.0  16.5  17.0  21.7  24.3  24.2  N  N  N  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   44.0  31.0  17.0   6.0   5.0   3.0  17.0  22.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.1 108.6 102.4  94.8  87.7  84.3  87.7  93.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    27.0  33.0  37.0  26.0  -9.0   1.0  -1.0 -31.0  U  N  N  U  U  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  56.0  56.0  54.0  59.0  60.0  55.0  55.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -4.0  -5.0  -1.0   0.0   1.0  -3.0  -6.0  N  F  F  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.6%        4.2%        4.4%
 25kt / 24h        6.3%       16.3%       11.3%
 30kt / 24h        4.3%        7.6%        6.0%
 35kt / 24h        2.1%        7.3%        4.7%
 40kt / 24h        1.7%        7.3%        4.5%
 45kt / 36h        3.5%       19.7%       11.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        8.8%        4.4%
 55kt / 48h        4.8%        4.8%        4.8%
 70kt / 48h        4.8%        4.1%        4.4%
 65kt / 72h        1.0%        4.0%        2.5%