Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH012022 211122 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -13.90    107.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     54.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     39.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     92.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.4  17.8  13.9  11.6  18.1  22.1  25.3  25.2  N  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   13.0  12.0  12.0  11.0  10.0   0.0  13.0   9.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         96.6  91.2  87.7  84.3  79.6  76.5  87.7 100.5  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    33.0  37.0  26.0  13.0  26.0  -1.0 -15.0 -25.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  60.0  63.0  65.0  65.0  67.0  65.0  67.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -5.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0  -5.0  -9.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        1.0%        0.7%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        5.0%        2.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        2.2%        1.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        1.8%        1.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.8%        0.9%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        7.7%        4.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        2.9%        1.4%
 55kt / 48h        1.5%        1.5%        1.5%
 70kt / 48h        1.5%        1.2%        1.4%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        1.5%        0.8%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons