Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH012022 211123 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.00    107.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     40.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     27.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     80.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.4  23.1  17.9  16.1  24.9  26.8  25.5  24.0  N  N  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   11.0   7.0   5.0   3.0   5.0  16.0  25.0  33.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         89.4  86.0  82.7  81.1  76.5  79.6  93.0 100.5  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    61.0  56.0  32.0  18.0 -13.0 -30.0 -35.0 -46.0  N  N  N  U  U VU VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  65.0  67.0  70.0  68.0  64.0  66.0  66.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0  -3.0  -2.0  -2.0   1.0  -4.0  -5.0 -10.0  F  N  N  N  N  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        1.8%        1.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.6%        0.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        2.6%        1.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.7%        0.4%
 55kt / 48h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons