Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH012022 211123 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.00    106.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     47.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     27.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     80.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.1  17.9  15.8  18.5  27.5  25.6  22.2  26.3  N  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   11.0  11.0  11.0  15.0  14.0  17.0  15.0  14.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         96.6  96.6  94.8  93.0  87.7  94.8 102.4 106.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    56.0  32.0  18.0   4.0   0.0 -31.0 -15.0 -34.0  N  N  U  U  U VU  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  62.0  59.0  62.0  57.0  50.0  54.0  55.0  N  N  U  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -2.0  -2.0  -2.0  -1.0  -8.0  -6.0 -10.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        0.7%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        3.9%        2.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        1.6%        0.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        1.3%        0.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.3%        0.7%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        4.3%        2.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.4%        0.7%
 55kt / 48h        0.3%        0.3%        0.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.3%        0.7%        0.5%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        1.4%        0.7%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons