Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH012022 211123 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -13.90    106.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     18.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     16.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     80.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.5  17.3  16.5  12.3  18.5  21.4  27.0  28.4  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    4.0  11.0   5.0   5.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         98.0  94.4  89.3  86.1  84.6  75.8  73.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    42.0  15.0   7.0 -11.0  -3.0  17.0  41.0  31.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  64.0  63.0  64.0  59.0  64.0  66.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -1.0  -1.0   1.0  -1.0  -5.0  -4.0 -10.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        1.3%        0.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.5%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        2.3%        1.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        0.6%        0.6%        0.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.6%        0.4%        0.5%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons