Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH012022 211124 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -13.90    106.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     51.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     37.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     63.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.1  16.9  13.3  14.6  16.3  19.4  21.8  23.3  N  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   10.0   9.0  12.0  17.0  18.0   8.0   2.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         94.4  89.3  86.1  87.7  92.7  87.7  84.6  77.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    19.0  -3.0 -23.0 -26.0 -52.0 -18.0   3.0  18.0  U  U VU VU VU  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  61.0  64.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  63.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0   0.0  -1.0  -2.0  -3.0  -6.0 -11.0  -7.0  F  N  N  N  N  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        1.8%        1.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.7%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        3.8%        2.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.2%        0.6%
 55kt / 48h        0.4%        0.4%        0.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.4%        0.8%        0.6%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        1.2%        0.6%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons