Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH012022 211124 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.20    106.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     10.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      6.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     69.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.2  13.3  16.6  18.1  16.7  20.8  21.7  29.2  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   11.0   5.0   5.0   3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         96.2  92.7  91.0  89.3  86.1  83.0  77.2  84.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -4.0 -23.0 -25.0 -38.0 -25.0  -3.0   1.0  36.0  U VU VU VU VU  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  60.0  57.0  59.0  56.0  55.0  61.0  64.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0  -2.0  -3.0  -8.0  -8.0  -4.0  -5.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.9%        0.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.3%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        1.4%        0.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons