Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH012022 211124 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.60    105.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     50.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.6  21.8  20.2  21.3  24.8  23.2  24.9  21.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    4.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   8.0  31.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         89.6  88.0  85.0  83.6  79.4  80.8  88.0 118.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -37.0 -47.0 -52.0 -38.5  -4.0  10.0  29.0  49.0 VU VU VU VU  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  55.0  56.0  55.5  58.0  61.0  64.0  66.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -3.0  -2.0  -3.0  -6.0  -9.0 -24.0 -25.0  N  N  N  N  F  F VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons