Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH012022 211125 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.50    104.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     44.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.1  24.5  24.4  26.4  29.2  28.5  28.0  31.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    6.0   5.0  11.0   9.0   0.0   0.0  13.0   4.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         91.1  91.1  89.6  88.0  85.0  79.4  94.3  99.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -26.0 -25.0   4.0  -7.0  -1.0  41.0  39.0  63.0 VU VU  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  58.0  55.0  58.0  57.0  60.0  62.0  62.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0 -10.0 -16.0 -15.0 -11.0 -16.0 -25.0 -19.0  F  F VF VF  F VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.3%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons