Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH022022 211209 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.10    101.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      3.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     50.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.4  27.2  30.2  33.9  30.4  33.7  45.1  57.0  N  N  N  U  N  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         99.4 101.2  97.7  91.1  85.0  82.2  83.6  97.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     4.0   0.0 -35.0 -25.0 -24.0   9.0   1.0  36.0  U  U VU VU VU  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   38.0  38.0  35.0  36.0  33.0  39.0  41.0  32.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -10.0 -12.0 -13.0 -12.0  -7.0 -12.0  -9.0  -5.0  F  F VF  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.3%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons