Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH032022 211212 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.10    157.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     95.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     78.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    136.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.7  22.9  20.2  15.5  20.4  25.2  19.9  21.6  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   63.0  63.0  56.0  36.0  26.0  21.0   9.0   0.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 120.1 122.3  84.6  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    58.0 100.0 101.0  88.0  75.0  70.0  80.0  53.0  N  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  77.0  74.0  74.0  69.0  64.0  58.0  54.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -7.0  -8.0 -11.0  12.0  34.0  -6.0   0.0  N  F  F  F  U VU  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.4%        9.8%        7.1%
 25kt / 24h       36.4%       61.5%       49.0%
 30kt / 24h       15.1%       46.4%       30.7%
 35kt / 24h       11.7%       46.4%       29.1%
 40kt / 24h        2.1%       43.0%       22.6%
 45kt / 36h       24.1%       69.0%       46.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       50.3%       25.2%
 55kt / 48h       34.1%       44.3%       39.2%
 70kt / 48h       11.1%       31.9%       21.5%
 65kt / 72h       26.8%       38.4%       32.6%