Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH032022 211212 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.80    157.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     62.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     42.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    119.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.1  20.1  14.2  16.7  21.9  19.8  21.1  34.6  N  N  F  F  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   64.0  55.0  34.0  30.0  11.0  15.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 117.0 114.6  74.6  59.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   100.0 100.0  88.0  93.0  72.0  57.0  51.0  37.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   78.0  74.0  76.0  75.0  69.0  61.0  57.0  52.0  F  N  F  F  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0  -8.0 -11.0   7.0  29.0  30.0  -3.0  36.0  F  F  F  N VU VU  N VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       11.6%       11.5%       11.6%
 25kt / 24h       44.5%       60.4%       52.5%
 30kt / 24h       24.7%       45.4%       35.1%
 35kt / 24h       18.3%       45.4%       31.9%
 40kt / 24h        9.8%       45.0%       27.4%
 45kt / 36h       29.9%       56.2%       43.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       34.7%       17.3%
 55kt / 48h       25.3%       32.5%       28.9%
 70kt / 48h       10.2%       17.7%       14.0%
 65kt / 72h        9.1%        9.6%        9.3%