Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH032022 211212 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.80    158.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     85.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     73.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    123.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.2  19.1  18.0  21.6  27.3  17.0  26.8  49.0  N  N  F  N  N  F  N VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   52.0  32.0  28.0  21.0   0.0   5.0   0.0   0.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 112.0 115.0  84.8  60.8  40.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   100.0  60.0  93.0  75.0  70.0  80.0  51.0  63.0  F  N  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  75.0  73.0  69.0  60.0  57.0  50.0  44.0  N  F  N  N  N  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0 -13.0   7.0  15.0  44.0   5.0  12.0  -4.0  F VF  N  U VU  N  U  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       17.1%       20.2%       18.6%
 25kt / 24h       49.7%       66.4%       58.0%
 30kt / 24h       28.6%       58.0%       43.3%
 35kt / 24h       25.2%       58.0%       41.6%
 40kt / 24h       12.7%       55.5%       34.1%
 45kt / 36h       27.5%       54.7%       41.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       34.3%       17.2%
 55kt / 48h       21.3%       30.2%       25.8%
 70kt / 48h        5.7%       15.6%       10.6%
 65kt / 72h        2.3%        3.7%        3.0%