Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH032022 211212 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.40    158.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     92.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     78.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    116.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.7  26.6  28.4  27.6  30.3  29.0  37.6  46.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   20.0  14.0   5.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        100.0 100.0 100.0  99.3 100.0  64.4  53.0  19.1  N  N  N  N  N  U  U VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    60.0  91.0  83.0  98.0 101.0  85.0  73.0  31.0  N  F  N  F  F  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  74.0  65.0  60.0  53.0  47.0  38.0  36.0  F  N  N  N  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -20.0 -10.0  -8.0   8.0   5.0   0.0  12.0 -17.0 VF  F  F  U  N  N  U VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       57.3%       33.2%       45.2%
 25kt / 24h       59.6%       67.5%       63.5%
 30kt / 24h       50.0%       65.3%       57.7%
 35kt / 24h       50.0%       65.3%       57.7%
 40kt / 24h       37.6%       62.5%       50.0%
 45kt / 36h       30.2%       44.6%       37.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       25.1%       12.6%
 55kt / 48h        6.2%       12.9%        9.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.9%        6.7%        3.8%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%