Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH032022 211213 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.00    159.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     67.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     48.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    105.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.4  32.3  32.9  29.0  29.2  28.6  38.8  43.3  U  U  U  N  N  N  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   30.0  28.0  23.0  18.0  21.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         95.0  95.0  95.0  87.3  92.0  57.7  51.1  19.7  N  N  N  N  N  U  U VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    82.0  81.0  74.0  96.0  58.0  29.0  47.0  18.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  69.0  62.0  62.0  54.0  44.0  37.0  33.0  F  N  N  N  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -11.0  -8.0 -11.0 -10.0 -20.0 -32.0 -48.0 -27.0  F  F  F  F VF VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       42.9%       15.5%       29.2%
 25kt / 24h       42.9%       41.7%       42.3%
 30kt / 24h       30.8%       32.8%       31.8%
 35kt / 24h       28.4%       32.8%       30.6%
 40kt / 24h       27.7%       32.0%       29.9%
 45kt / 36h       22.7%       20.6%       21.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        7.7%        3.8%
 55kt / 48h        2.9%        5.8%        4.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.5%        3.0%        1.7%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%