Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH032022 211213 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -18.10    161.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     68.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     42.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    105.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.3  29.9  26.0  24.0  24.8  31.0  38.6  53.9  U  N  N  N  N  U  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    6.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0  64.4  50.0  20.0   3.4  N  N  N  N  U  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    81.0  74.0  96.0  76.0  38.0  78.0  13.0  43.0  N  N  F  N  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  67.0  64.0  58.0  50.0  40.0  32.0  30.0  N  N  N  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -9.0  -1.0  -4.0 -19.0 -39.0 -41.0 -86.0 -58.0  F  N  F VF VF VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.0%        2.7%        3.4%
 25kt / 24h       11.1%       18.0%       14.5%
 30kt / 24h        6.0%       11.3%        8.6%
 35kt / 24h        3.9%       11.3%        7.6%
 40kt / 24h        3.1%       10.9%        7.0%
 45kt / 36h        2.8%        4.7%        3.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.3%        0.6%
 55kt / 48h        0.2%        1.2%        0.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%