Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH032022 211213 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -19.20    162.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     84.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     58.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    120.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.1  30.4  27.1  27.5  29.1  34.4  45.6  59.0  U  N  N  N  N  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   21.0  24.0  26.0  10.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        100.0 100.0 100.0  77.4  50.0  37.9  17.4  -4.1  N  N  N  U  U  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    64.0  52.0  58.0  45.0  30.0  60.0  10.0  25.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  64.0  55.0  51.0  50.0  34.0  39.0  38.0  N  N  U  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   3.0  -4.0   5.0  -2.0 -36.0 -14.0 -10.0  N  N  F  N  N VF VF  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.5%        2.6%        2.5%
 25kt / 24h        6.7%       12.7%        9.7%
 30kt / 24h        3.1%        7.7%        5.4%
 35kt / 24h        2.8%        7.7%        5.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.7%        7.0%        3.9%
 45kt / 36h        0.6%        2.4%        1.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%