Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH032022 211213 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -20.10    163.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     90.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     77.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.2  24.6  27.4  25.6  32.7  41.6  54.4  65.8  N  N  N  N  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         90.7  99.6  80.5  64.3  56.5  30.7  16.2  -3.4  N  N  N  U  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    52.0  59.0  46.0  27.0  51.0  28.0  23.0  41.0  N  N  N  U  N  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  61.0  56.0  52.0  41.0  34.0  30.0  33.0  N  N  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   9.0  12.0  -4.0  -2.0 -23.0 -14.0  81.0  N  U  U  F  N VF VF VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.5%        2.0%        1.8%
 25kt / 24h        1.7%        6.5%        4.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.6%        3.4%        2.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.5%        3.4%        2.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%        3.1%        1.7%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        1.9%        1.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%