Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH032022 211214 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -21.20    165.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     95.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     59.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    123.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.5  30.3  28.1  29.8  41.5  50.1  60.8  74.9  N  N  N  N VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   14.0   6.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         95.7  81.6  64.6  60.0  43.2  21.9   3.9  -5.5  N  N  U  U  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    49.0  40.0  30.0  48.0  67.0   7.0  26.0  21.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  54.0  55.0  47.0  38.0  37.0  39.0  48.0  N  U  U VU VU VU VU  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   9.0  21.0   8.0  10.0 -21.0  16.0 -71.0  81.0  U VU  U  U VF  U VF VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        0.9%        0.7%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        2.4%        1.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.1%        0.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        1.0%        0.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.9%        0.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons