Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH032022 211214 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -23.30    169.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     53.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     16.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    133.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        36.3  35.0  40.6  43.8  49.5  71.0  69.7  71.3  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         68.6  67.2  54.3  41.8  27.1   8.7   0.1  -4.3  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    26.0  48.0  79.0  74.0  43.0  23.0  26.0 110.0  U  N  N  N  N  U  U  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  48.0  42.0  38.0  34.0  43.0  45.0  46.0  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  37.0  20.0   8.0 -47.0 -44.0-150.0 -67.0 -16.0 VU VU  U VF VF VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons