Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH032022 211214 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -24.30    170.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     12.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    113.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        36.1  39.6  45.8  47.8  64.0  66.9  70.2  70.2  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         65.8  56.7  40.0  32.6  14.7   3.4  -3.6  -3.6  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    48.0  80.0  74.0  34.0  41.0  34.0  58.0  58.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   46.0  41.0  38.0  39.0  40.0  49.0  46.0  46.0 VU VU VU VU VU  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  18.0   3.0 -35.0 -44.0 -75.0 -82.0   9.0   9.0 VU  N VF VF VF VF  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons