Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH042022 220101 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -22.20    157.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     20.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      7.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     82.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        46.6  49.9  49.2  51.0  38.1  40.8  51.1  46.8 VU VU VU VU  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    6.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         97.4  84.4  74.6  65.8  54.3  49.8  53.2  59.2  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    76.0  93.0 103.0  90.0  29.0   6.0  30.0 -11.0  N  F  F  F  N  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  61.0  54.0  48.0  48.0  44.0  50.0  50.0  N  N  U  U  U VU  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -19.0 -31.0 -44.0 -42.0 -31.0 -27.0 -32.0 -19.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons