Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH042022 220101 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -22.40    158.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      2.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     84.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        48.3  42.3  44.9  45.4  44.1  46.1  43.7  56.2 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   3.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         96.2  84.6  78.6  71.7  64.3  64.3  70.4  83.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   112.0 131.0  63.0  46.0   4.0  28.0  11.0  -3.0  F  F  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  48.0  46.0  40.0  43.0  43.0  42.0  46.0  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -28.0 -35.0 -33.0 -38.0 -20.0 -15.0  -5.0  -7.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons