Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH042022 220101 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -23.30    159.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     12.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     95.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        37.9  40.6  41.8  44.2  44.7  45.4  41.8  43.5  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   5.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         97.7  91.1  86.5  82.2  76.7  82.2  96.0 103.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   131.0  62.0  45.0   0.0  29.0  10.0   1.0 -12.0  F  N  N  U  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   47.0  44.0  42.0  37.0  41.0  40.0  42.0  39.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -33.0 -35.0 -37.0 -28.0 -17.0 -12.0  -3.0   0.0 VF VF VF VF VF  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons