Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH042022 220102 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -25.00    158.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     96.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        49.8  51.6  49.7  49.2  55.2  60.9  61.3  48.6 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   8.0   9.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         91.5  84.4  79.2  73.2  74.3  83.0  99.3 108.0  N  N  N  U  U  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    71.0  25.0 -10.0  17.0  10.0   9.0   2.0  -9.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   47.0  39.0  38.0  38.0  42.0  42.0  43.0  42.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -23.0  -9.0 -20.0 -24.0 -42.0 -20.0 -31.0  -8.0 VF  F VF VF VF VF VF  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons