Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH042022 220102 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -27.20    158.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     95.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        45.6  43.9  44.1  48.5  50.2  56.2  49.2  44.8 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   5.0   8.0   1.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         74.3  72.0  73.2  74.3  81.7  96.1 102.7 102.7  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -5.0  19.0  22.0  29.0   7.0  16.0  -1.0  -7.0  U  U  U  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   44.0  44.0  46.0  42.0  41.0  43.0  42.0  42.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -16.0 -16.0 -17.0 -28.0 -11.0 -22.0  -9.0 -24.0 VF VF VF VF  F VF  F VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons