Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH042022 220103 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -28.00    157.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     85.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        47.1  50.0  52.5  51.7  61.3  50.9  48.6  46.7 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         67.0  68.2  69.3  71.7  82.2  88.0  86.5  74.2  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    45.0  50.0  23.0  -1.0  15.0 -11.0  -8.0  32.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   48.0  47.0  41.0  42.0  44.0  43.0  46.0  46.0  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0 -11.0  -7.0  -4.0 -12.0  -8.0 -12.0 -21.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons