Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH042022 220104 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -27.70    156.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     87.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        58.2  62.9  59.2  49.0  46.6  43.0  47.5  47.2 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  16.5  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         83.0  88.6  91.5  93.0  93.0  88.6  91.5 121.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    10.0   5.0 -10.0 -16.0 -10.0  28.0  11.0  29.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   45.0  45.0  43.0  44.0  45.0  44.0  48.0  48.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   5.0   2.0   1.0   2.0  -1.0   5.0  -6.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons