Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH042022 220104 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -26.60    156.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     84.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        57.2  52.2  44.6  41.7  42.6  38.5  40.8  37.8 VU VU VU VU VU  U VU  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   3.0   3.0   1.0  30.8  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         88.6  93.0  97.7 101.0 108.0 102.7  99.3 102.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     5.0 -10.0 -16.0 -39.0  11.0   8.0  23.0  11.0  U  U  U VU  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   43.0  43.0  43.0  45.0  46.0  49.0  48.0  49.0 VU VU VU VU VU  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   4.0   2.0   4.0   0.0   4.0   6.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons