Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH052022 220113 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -25.60    175.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      5.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     96.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        54.5  53.4  54.5  56.1  59.6  63.2  90.5  89.9 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         63.0  60.4  59.2  57.9  59.2  53.2  44.7  35.8  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    85.0  76.0  82.0  60.0   6.0  78.0 102.0  78.0  F  N  N  N  U  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   44.0  48.0  45.0  42.0  46.0  47.0  38.0  39.0 VU  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -6.0  -2.0  -3.0   7.0   1.0  66.0  77.0  F  F  N  N  N  N VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons