Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH052022 220114 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -28.20    179.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     89.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        59.6  63.9  68.0  69.3  75.7  75.6  69.7  63.8 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         54.3  48.8  42.8  38.3  35.0  32.6  22.8  18.7  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    94.0  96.0  63.0 101.0  46.0  76.0  -2.0  -5.0  F  F  N  F  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   39.0  39.0  38.0  39.0  41.0  42.0  41.0  47.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0 -11.0 -28.0   5.0  12.0  18.0  15.0  22.0  F  F VF  N  U VU  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons