Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH062022 220111 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.10    139.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     71.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     45.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    103.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.2  23.4  24.8  23.1  22.6  20.7  39.1  41.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   74.0  65.0  32.0  15.0  25.0  35.0  20.0  14.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 119.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    60.0  38.0   8.0  21.0  28.0  14.0  50.0  71.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  69.0  65.0  69.0  69.0  74.0  69.0  72.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   9.0  11.0   2.0  11.0   7.0  23.0  20.0  N  U  U  N  U  N VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.9%        6.1%        5.0%
 25kt / 24h       15.2%       34.9%       25.0%
 30kt / 24h        7.9%       19.9%       13.9%
 35kt / 24h        4.2%       19.7%       12.0%
 40kt / 24h        1.8%       18.9%       10.4%
 45kt / 36h        9.2%       35.4%       22.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       16.7%        8.3%
 55kt / 48h       10.3%       19.4%       14.8%
 70kt / 48h        2.3%        8.8%        5.5%
 65kt / 72h        3.3%        7.6%        5.4%