Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH062022 220111 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.20    138.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     72.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     63.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    116.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.5  26.4  22.7  22.7  23.7  32.1  40.3  39.7  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   44.0  15.0   6.0  13.3  27.8  47.0  19.0  19.0  N  U  U  U  U  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    38.0   7.0  21.0  26.0  13.0  55.0  72.0 121.0  N  U  U  U  U  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  64.0  69.0  67.0  69.0  67.0  70.0  73.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   9.0  14.0   3.0  14.0   9.0  23.0  14.0  23.0  U  U  N  U  U VU  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        5.0%        6.1%        5.6%
 25kt / 24h       13.0%       32.4%       22.7%
 30kt / 24h        7.5%       20.2%       13.8%
 35kt / 24h        6.3%       20.2%       13.3%
 40kt / 24h        1.7%       19.4%       10.6%
 45kt / 36h        8.2%       27.5%       17.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       12.1%        6.0%
 55kt / 48h        7.3%       14.5%       10.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.6%        4.9%        2.8%
 65kt / 72h        1.9%        5.0%        3.4%