Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH062022 220111 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.90    136.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     83.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     59.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    105.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.1  23.0  21.4  24.0  21.5  35.6  30.8  50.6  N  N  N  N  N  U  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   15.0   6.0  17.0  28.0  47.0  47.0  37.0  53.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  U  N
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    15.0  13.0  19.0  20.0  31.0  67.0  81.0  79.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  69.0  68.0  72.0  70.0  70.0  71.0  75.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  12.0   6.0  12.0  10.0  11.0   6.0   9.0  31.0  U  N  U  U  U  N  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        8.4%        9.1%        8.8%
 25kt / 24h       17.4%       37.7%       27.5%
 30kt / 24h       11.7%       29.2%       20.5%
 35kt / 24h       11.0%       29.2%       20.1%
 40kt / 24h        4.2%       27.3%       15.7%
 45kt / 36h       10.8%       27.3%       19.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       12.5%        6.2%
 55kt / 48h        5.7%       13.6%        9.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.3%        3.4%        1.9%
 65kt / 72h        2.3%        3.8%        3.0%