Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH062022 220112 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.90    135.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     78.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     59.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    117.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.6  18.4  16.5  16.2  31.2  34.5  38.3  49.3  N  F  F  F  U  U  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   15.5  17.0  18.5  20.0  20.0  51.0  56.0  53.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    19.0  33.0  33.0  28.0  69.0  60.0 136.0  99.0  U  N  N  U  N  N VF  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  68.0  70.0  67.0  68.0  67.0  72.0  78.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   1.0   4.0   6.0  21.0  13.0  23.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N VU  U VU  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.8%        2.6%        1.7%
 25kt / 24h        5.8%       23.7%       14.7%
 30kt / 24h        2.5%       14.5%        8.5%
 35kt / 24h        2.2%       14.5%        8.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.4%       13.6%        7.0%
 45kt / 36h        3.7%       16.1%        9.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        5.9%        2.9%
 55kt / 48h        4.1%        9.1%        6.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        2.1%        1.1%
 65kt / 72h        3.4%        3.3%        3.3%