Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH062022 220112 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.80    132.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    112.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.0  19.1  13.9  14.2  24.5  25.1  30.6  34.1  N  N  F  F  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   57.0  57.0  67.0  67.0  47.0  14.0  14.0  14.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    29.0   8.0  13.0  48.0  57.0 134.0 125.0 111.0  N  U  U  N  N VF  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  69.0  68.0  72.0  70.0  75.0  75.0  77.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0   9.0   4.0   7.0  10.0  12.0  -6.0  16.0  U  U  N  N  U  U  F  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        2.6%        1.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.9%        0.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        2.7%        1.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        6.5%        3.4%        4.9%
 70kt / 48h        2.5%        0.7%        1.6%
 65kt / 72h       27.1%        4.3%       15.7%