Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH062022 220113 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.80    129.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     23.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     10.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    105.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.5  23.9  24.0  23.2  27.7  27.3  25.7  45.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   46.0  46.0  20.0  13.0  52.0  27.0  27.0  27.0  N  N  U  U  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    42.0  58.0  66.0  91.0 105.0 129.0  91.0 109.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  71.0  68.0  73.0  75.0  79.0  81.0  82.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  14.0  20.0  18.0  19.0  23.0  12.0  14.0  29.0  U VU VU VU VU  U  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        1.2%        0.7%
 25kt / 24h        2.3%       12.6%        7.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.7%        4.6%        2.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        4.0%        2.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        4.0%        2.0%
 45kt / 36h        3.4%       17.7%       10.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        5.4%        2.7%
 55kt / 48h        9.7%       10.7%       10.2%
 70kt / 48h        4.6%        4.4%        4.5%
 65kt / 72h       18.0%        9.8%       13.9%