Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH062022 220113 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.20    128.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     26.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     16.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    126.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.9  22.5  21.6  25.6  24.7  23.0  35.5  46.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   19.0  19.0  19.0  19.0  19.0  19.0  19.0  19.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    65.0  70.0  82.0 110.0 105.0  73.0 115.0 123.0  N  N  N  F  F  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  68.0  67.0  71.0  72.0  77.0  79.0  77.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  20.0  17.0  16.0  19.0  12.0  -4.0  -2.0  -1.0 VU  U  U VU  U  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.8%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        2.0%       10.8%        6.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.4%        3.6%        2.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        3.2%        1.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        3.2%        1.6%
 45kt / 36h        2.0%       13.4%        7.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        3.7%        1.8%
 55kt / 48h        6.2%        8.8%        7.5%
 70kt / 48h        1.8%        3.6%        2.7%
 65kt / 72h       10.3%        8.5%        9.4%