Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH062022 220114 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.40    125.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     45.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     25.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    128.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.2  24.4  32.6  36.4  32.1  41.8  50.1  54.9  N  N  U  U  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   35.0  40.0  37.3  34.7  29.3  24.0  18.7  13.3  U  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.5 139.3 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   109.0 116.0 129.0 100.0 111.0 120.0  60.0  58.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  74.0  75.0  76.0  76.0  71.0  70.0  70.0  N  N  F  F  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  14.0  11.0  14.0   1.0  36.0  -3.0 -19.0 -27.0  U  U  U  N VU  N VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.6%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        1.8%        7.0%        4.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        2.2%        1.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        1.7%        0.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.7%        0.9%
 45kt / 36h        0.8%       10.7%        5.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        2.8%        1.4%
 55kt / 48h        2.8%        3.5%        3.1%
 70kt / 48h        1.2%        1.9%        1.6%
 65kt / 72h        3.2%        3.4%        3.3%