Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH062022 220114 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.10    125.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     48.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     28.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    148.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.9  32.0  31.8  28.5  35.4  45.8  43.8  49.3  U  U  U  N  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   19.0  19.0  19.0  19.0  19.0  19.0  19.0  19.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        139.3 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    72.0 119.0 118.0 113.0  76.0  64.0  23.0  24.0  N  F  F  F  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  79.0  76.0  80.0  75.0  76.0  71.0  68.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  18.0  17.0  23.0   9.0  -3.0 -17.0 -22.0  -8.0 VU  U VU  U  N VF VF  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        1.3%        6.6%        4.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        2.0%        1.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        1.7%        0.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.7%        0.8%
 45kt / 36h        0.4%        8.1%        4.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.9%        1.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.5%        2.7%        1.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        1.4%        0.7%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        3.0%        1.6%