Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH072022 220123 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.70     43.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     49.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     37.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    140.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.6  27.6  26.9  23.7  19.8  19.5  27.2  22.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   66.0  58.0  43.0  40.0  28.0  14.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 122.3 117.9  83.0  96.2  77.2  67.9  F  F  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   108.0 106.0  98.0  58.0  89.0  93.0  85.0  58.0  F  F  F  N  F  F  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  76.0  71.0  71.0  73.0  72.0  75.0  73.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   6.0  10.0   7.0  19.0  16.0   1.0  -4.0  N  N  U  N VU  U  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.3%        3.0%        2.6%
 25kt / 24h       12.8%       23.7%       18.2%
 30kt / 24h        4.9%        9.9%        7.4%
 35kt / 24h        3.0%        9.1%        6.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        9.1%        4.8%
 45kt / 36h        6.0%       22.2%       14.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        7.9%        3.9%
 55kt / 48h       11.8%        5.4%        8.6%
 70kt / 48h       11.0%        5.3%        8.2%
 65kt / 72h        7.8%        5.3%        6.6%