Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH072022 220124 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.80     42.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     75.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     68.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    129.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.1  33.3  32.3  29.4  32.2  31.4  35.8  30.9  N  U  U  N  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   48.0  34.0  27.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        114.6  99.4  81.0  71.5  76.1  81.0  76.1  54.3  N  N  N  U  U  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   119.0 126.0  92.0  80.0  49.0  68.0  77.0  56.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  77.0  77.0  80.0  77.0  82.0  86.0  85.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   8.0   9.0  11.0   5.0   7.0   2.0  11.0  N  U  U  U  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        7.6%        4.7%        6.1%
 25kt / 24h        9.8%       13.0%       11.4%
 30kt / 24h        3.5%        5.3%        4.4%
 35kt / 24h        2.4%        5.0%        3.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.8%        4.7%        2.8%
 45kt / 36h        1.1%        9.1%        5.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        2.9%        1.5%
 55kt / 48h        0.5%        0.4%        0.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.4%        1.0%        0.7%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons