Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH072022 220124 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.00     40.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     73.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     50.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    123.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        37.3  34.2  27.1  31.0  31.4  30.1  32.4  29.8  U  U  N  U  U  N  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         62.2  48.2  43.8  40.7  41.7  26.9  26.9  26.2  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   111.0 132.0  72.0  49.0  39.0  49.0  82.0  51.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  77.0  80.0  80.0  82.0  84.0  85.0  84.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   9.0   5.0  12.0  17.0  11.0   5.0   5.0   4.0  U  N  U  U  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.1%        1.2%        2.7%
 25kt / 24h        1.1%        2.1%        1.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.7%        0.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.3%        0.6%        0.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        2.9%        1.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons