Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH072022 220124 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.30     38.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     70.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     48.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    122.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.1  30.0  32.3  31.6  29.7  32.0  27.2  32.9  U  N  U  U  N  U  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         55.5  49.8  52.0  57.9  31.9  35.0  26.4  23.4  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   112.0  82.0  45.0  55.0  46.0  53.0  75.0  59.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   78.0  80.0  82.0  78.0  84.0  84.0  84.0  80.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0   8.0  15.0   5.0   4.0   1.0   6.0   0.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.3%        0.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons