Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH082022 220127 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.90     81.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     70.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     57.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    128.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.6  19.3  20.6  23.4  24.7  28.7  27.6  25.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   17.0  10.0  14.0  14.0   6.0   9.0  13.0  17.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    50.0  59.0  49.0  32.0  38.0  78.0  28.0 -18.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  56.0  57.0  59.0  56.0  55.0  55.0  50.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0   0.0   2.0  12.0  11.0  18.0  24.0  N  N  N  N  U  U VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        7.7%       10.2%        8.9%
 25kt / 24h       20.8%       47.0%       33.9%
 30kt / 24h       12.0%       33.1%       22.6%
 35kt / 24h       12.0%       33.1%       22.6%
 40kt / 24h        2.6%       32.1%       17.4%
 45kt / 36h       12.0%       46.1%       29.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       26.6%       13.3%
 55kt / 48h        8.8%       22.0%       15.4%
 70kt / 48h        1.9%       12.3%        7.1%
 65kt / 72h        4.0%       10.7%        7.4%