Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH082022 220127 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -18.00     79.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    55.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     54.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     24.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     86.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.1  19.5  26.0  28.1  23.2  34.6  28.8  32.9  F  N  N  N  N  U  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    6.0   8.0   4.0   5.0   9.0  13.0  18.0  24.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    69.0  51.0  51.0  40.0  77.0  54.0  11.0 -10.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  56.0  56.0  56.0  55.0  53.0  51.0  50.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -11.0  -1.0  10.0  12.0   8.0  10.0  30.0  30.0  F  N  U  U  U  U VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       57.7%       24.0%       40.8%
 25kt / 24h       37.5%       37.3%       37.4%
 30kt / 24h       37.5%       32.3%       34.9%
 35kt / 24h       37.5%       32.3%       34.9%
 40kt / 24h       37.5%       32.3%       34.9%
 45kt / 36h       40.5%       18.3%       29.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        8.1%        4.0%
 55kt / 48h        1.5%        4.1%        2.8%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%