Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH082022 220127 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -18.30     77.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     14.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      7.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     69.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.4  24.3  28.5  28.5  28.6  32.2  41.6  54.2  N  N  N  N  N  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   10.0   9.0   9.0   6.0  11.0  14.0  20.0  29.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    64.0  71.0  61.0  43.0  56.0  42.0  21.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  56.0  59.0  56.0  55.0  50.0  45.0  42.0  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   4.0   8.0  14.0  21.0  28.0  42.0  23.0  N  N  U  U VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       20.6%        8.8%       14.7%
 25kt / 24h       26.0%       27.0%       26.5%
 30kt / 24h       26.0%       16.2%       21.1%
 35kt / 24h       26.0%       16.2%       21.1%
 40kt / 24h       26.0%       16.2%       21.1%
 45kt / 36h       13.3%       13.8%       13.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        4.0%        2.0%
 55kt / 48h        1.4%        5.2%        3.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.2%        1.2%        0.7%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%