Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH082022 220128 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -18.60     76.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -40.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     31.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     13.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     74.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.7  27.7  23.8  21.7  25.4  31.6  47.5  52.0  N  N  N  N  N  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   14.0   9.0  10.0  13.0  13.0  15.0  21.0  28.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    85.0  79.0  62.0  52.0  21.0  46.0   0.0  23.0  F  N  N  N  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  61.0  60.0  60.0  57.0  51.0  50.0  54.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -18.0  -7.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  17.0  34.0  19.0 VF  F  N  N  N  U VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.6%        0.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%