Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH082022 220128 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -18.40     74.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     38.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     22.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     76.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.5  22.9  21.5  21.1  22.8  28.3  41.4  50.9  N  N  N  N  N  N VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   13.0  15.0  16.0  16.0  17.0  22.0  27.0  32.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    66.0  60.0  62.0  66.0  30.0  39.0  34.0  13.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  62.0  64.0  59.0  55.0  48.0  41.0  35.0  N  N  N  U  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0  -5.0   2.0   1.0   3.0  23.0  23.0  14.0  F  F  N  N  N VU VU  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        3.6%        2.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.4%        0.8%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        1.1%        0.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.1%        0.6%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        1.7%        1.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.6%        2.4%        1.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        3.5%        0.6%        2.1%